2011-05-02

jsburbidge: (Default)
2011-05-02 11:37 am
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A couple of notes on the election...

1) One of the remarkable things about the campaign is the degree to which Conservative support has not changed.  There seems to be an unbudgeable block of a little over one third of the Canadian population which will not vote for any party significantly to the left of the current CPC.  They may be split (as when the Reform and Conservative parties handed Ontario to the Liberals) or they may be disillusioned and choose to stay home, but -- given the background news about the issues with Conservative aides, the general matters of disrespect for Parliament, and some of the sheer meanness of the Government's behaviour on matters which did not have to go to the legislature -- this probably represents the Conservative rock-bottom vote.

2) The Liberals must really be hoping for at minimum a very strong Conservative minority if not a majority, as it will save them from the unpalatable (and potentially, for them, catastrophic either way) choice between supporting the Conservatives, whom they have been treating as agents of the forces of darkness for the latter while, and the NDP, who could potentially supplant them if they get a chance at governing and manage to do so reasonably competently (and who, if they get a chance at governing and don't do well, will effectively tar the Liberals who support them with part of the blame).