In about March, about the only really reasonable path through the pandemic
was a fairly simple three step process: first, lick down to gain time while
building resources (PPE, medical supplies, testing resources) and getting
as much basic research done in the disease as possible; secondly, restart
based on massive, proactive testing with extensive coverage and rapid
turnaround, as from an epidemiological point of view that acts as a partial
standing for immunity, allowing exposure to infection to be minimized;
third, roll out universal vaccination with exceptions made for only those
with genuine medical issues, which would allow for a return to fairly full
economic activity sometime in the middle of 2021.
Except they (Ontario, Quebec, Canada) never went beyond a partial stage 1,
and now they are reaping what they sowed. The really stupid thing is that
even from a purely pragmatic political point if view it's a great way of
blowing any credit they got from even moderately good aspects of their
initial reaction.
We are not in a second wave; that term derives from influenza, where there
really is a seasonal abeyance in the summer and a resurgence in late
fall/winter; we are still in a first wave, and anyone of any intelligence
could have concluded that cases would be on a significant uptick as
restraints were released unless both the conditions were satisfied of a
much more cautious population and much greater and more convenient
availability of testing.
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timeasmymeasure
no subject
Date: 2020-09-29 10:23 pm (UTC)In about March, about the only really reasonable path through the pandemic was a fairly simple three step process: first, lick down to gain time while building resources (PPE, medical supplies, testing resources) and getting as much basic research done in the disease as possible; secondly, restart based on massive, proactive testing with extensive coverage and rapid turnaround, as from an epidemiological point of view that acts as a partial standing for immunity, allowing exposure to infection to be minimized; third, roll out universal vaccination with exceptions made for only those with genuine medical issues, which would allow for a return to fairly full economic activity sometime in the middle of 2021.
Except they (Ontario, Quebec, Canada) never went beyond a partial stage 1, and now they are reaping what they sowed. The really stupid thing is that even from a purely pragmatic political point if view it's a great way of blowing any credit they got from even moderately good aspects of their initial reaction.
We are not in a second wave; that term derives from influenza, where there really is a seasonal abeyance in the summer and a resurgence in late fall/winter; we are still in a first wave, and anyone of any intelligence could have concluded that cases would be on a significant uptick as restraints were released unless both the conditions were satisfied of a much more cautious population and much greater and more convenient availability of testing.