My guess with regard to commercial real estate is that it may have fewer defenders than you might think.
My previous employer was actively looking at moving tech workers to a hybrid work model two years before the pandemic to reduce real estate prices. That was one large bank (TD). It wasn't going anywhere as far as I could tell (when I left in 2019) but not for want of trying. I fully expect them to be accelerating those attempts under current conditions.
My current employer is taking the opportunity to give up the lease on four floors of our building and merge those of us from those floors into four other floors based on a hybrid two-days-on, two-days-off (Fridays optional) model for coming in vs. working from home. (This means not returning to the office at all until at least November.) This is a second large bank (RBC).
That's not just indicative, that's two major tenants in commercial real estate with a huge share in the system as it is, as they're also representative of those who have loans out to REITs and other commercial landlords. I suspect they're willing to take the generalized risks of a commercial real estate quasi-meltdown in order to limit their own costs, and may be expecting to gain advantage for themselves in the medium term, even if they take a haircut on loan defaults now.
Reports coming out on the labour market suggest that even employers who want to force everyone back will have problems. Commuting is going to drop willy-nilly.
(I do wonder what the TTC will do about its pass system. A two-days-a-week body of commuters will pay hob with their model which is designed (unlike the GO model) not to save money for commuters but to avoid losing the TTC money.)
I expect masking to be driven not only by Delta but also by "gee, it was nice not to get a cold or the flu last year".
I have no idea when the bills come due in politics. I suspect that a situation where there is no real return to the old Normal to make worse the nascent rifts in the Canadian Conservative coalition, as it is likely to put moderates and more extreme members at each other's throats over appropriate responses. The governmental legitimacy level ... let's see where we are in six months.
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timeasmymeasure
no subject
Date: 2021-08-06 02:36 am (UTC)My previous employer was actively looking at moving tech workers to a hybrid work model two years before the pandemic to reduce real estate prices. That was one large bank (TD). It wasn't going anywhere as far as I could tell (when I left in 2019) but not for want of trying. I fully expect them to be accelerating those attempts under current conditions.
My current employer is taking the opportunity to give up the lease on four floors of our building and merge those of us from those floors into four other floors based on a hybrid two-days-on, two-days-off (Fridays optional) model for coming in vs. working from home. (This means not returning to the office at all until at least November.) This is a second large bank (RBC).
That's not just indicative, that's two major tenants in commercial real estate with a huge share in the system as it is, as they're also representative of those who have loans out to REITs and other commercial landlords. I suspect they're willing to take the generalized risks of a commercial real estate quasi-meltdown in order to limit their own costs, and may be expecting to gain advantage for themselves in the medium term, even if they take a haircut on loan defaults now.
Reports coming out on the labour market suggest that even employers who want to force everyone back will have problems. Commuting is going to drop willy-nilly.
(I do wonder what the TTC will do about its pass system. A two-days-a-week body of commuters will pay hob with their model which is designed (unlike the GO model) not to save money for commuters but to avoid losing the TTC money.)
I expect masking to be driven not only by Delta but also by "gee, it was nice not to get a cold or the flu last year".
I have no idea when the bills come due in politics. I suspect that a situation where there is no real return to the old Normal to make worse the nascent rifts in the Canadian Conservative coalition, as it is likely to put moderates and more extreme members at each other's throats over appropriate responses. The governmental legitimacy level ... let's see where we are in six months.