![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
Deliberate own goals?
Jun. 10th, 2014 01:55 pmOne of the odder things in the feedback I see regarding the Ontario election is the subset of voters who are (a) affiliated formally or informally with a party (i.e. members or "always vote that way") and (b) likely to vote against that party as a blow against the leader.
I've been seeing sentiments at least since the last election from moderate PCs that Hudak is bad for the party (both electorally and in terms of policy) and needs to be replaced. This type of voter is typically now saying that the one thing they won't do is vote for Hudak: they'd be willing to pay the price of another Liberal minority to remove Hudak and shift the party back to a more moderate platform.
On the left, there's been highly publicized pushback against Horwath within the NDP; this began a couple of years ago but has become much more prominent this election, with added concern over her decision not to support the budget at this time and in this context.
Hudak can in principle come out of this with at least a short lease on life. If he manages a slight plurality (which is within possibility, given the polls taken as a whole, although given the way the vote splits between ridings it is not the most likely outcome, and requires both the PCs and the NDP getting votes at the top of their predicted likely ranges. It would be interesting to watch him try to govern, though, given that neither other party is likely to support his platform. If the outcome is a Liberal minority, he's probably toast, if not on election night, then soon after: there's a widespread sentiment that this election ought to have been a cakewalk for a more centrist PC leader.
I don't see how Horwath comes out of this well under any reasonable scenario. In the event of a strong NDP vote (i.e. better showing than at dissolution) a PC minority is more probable, which would make a significant part of her base furious at her for enabling it. In the event of a Liberal minority, though, regardless of the strength of the NDP result, she's been burning bridges ever since before the beginning of the campaign, and that's also more likely to go along with a reduced number of NDP seats.
I must say that I don't see any Liberal types who seem to be mad at Wynne. I'm sure there are ex-Pupatello supporters who would like to see a more centre-right rather than centre-left leader, but they're not visible; and if Wynne loses this election by a small margin, I doubt she'll have trouble keeping her job, as she can (justifiably) point to her predecessor and not herself as the critical factor in the loss.
I've been seeing sentiments at least since the last election from moderate PCs that Hudak is bad for the party (both electorally and in terms of policy) and needs to be replaced. This type of voter is typically now saying that the one thing they won't do is vote for Hudak: they'd be willing to pay the price of another Liberal minority to remove Hudak and shift the party back to a more moderate platform.
On the left, there's been highly publicized pushback against Horwath within the NDP; this began a couple of years ago but has become much more prominent this election, with added concern over her decision not to support the budget at this time and in this context.
Hudak can in principle come out of this with at least a short lease on life. If he manages a slight plurality (which is within possibility, given the polls taken as a whole, although given the way the vote splits between ridings it is not the most likely outcome, and requires both the PCs and the NDP getting votes at the top of their predicted likely ranges. It would be interesting to watch him try to govern, though, given that neither other party is likely to support his platform. If the outcome is a Liberal minority, he's probably toast, if not on election night, then soon after: there's a widespread sentiment that this election ought to have been a cakewalk for a more centrist PC leader.
I don't see how Horwath comes out of this well under any reasonable scenario. In the event of a strong NDP vote (i.e. better showing than at dissolution) a PC minority is more probable, which would make a significant part of her base furious at her for enabling it. In the event of a Liberal minority, though, regardless of the strength of the NDP result, she's been burning bridges ever since before the beginning of the campaign, and that's also more likely to go along with a reduced number of NDP seats.
I must say that I don't see any Liberal types who seem to be mad at Wynne. I'm sure there are ex-Pupatello supporters who would like to see a more centre-right rather than centre-left leader, but they're not visible; and if Wynne loses this election by a small margin, I doubt she'll have trouble keeping her job, as she can (justifiably) point to her predecessor and not herself as the critical factor in the loss.
