Ontario Politics Just Got Interesting

 The PC's in Ontario have a recent history of leaders making own goals (Tory with school funding, Hudak with policy positions far enough to the right to scare people) and they now have a spectacular one. 

 

In the best of cases this situation - leaderless less than five months before an election - would be exceedingly difficult, even before you factor in any splash effect from the nature of the allegations. As it is, the policy aspects are at the level of vultures circling. 

 

Brown, remember, was selected as an interloper from the federal Conservatives, perceived as being more populist and right-wing than Christine Elliott, the front-runner. Once he got into position he laid low for a long time and then, clearly deciding that Hudak's approach of continuing to hit one's head against an electorate well to the left of the PC base was a poor idea, pushed through a party policy document running distinctly to the Red Tory side. This alienated elements of the base, but except for those willing to throw votes away on the Trillium Party or the Family Coalition Party, they had a pig in a poke. 

 

They don't have time to have a leadership campaign, thrash out a new policy, and run on it. The election campaign will begin on May 10. 

 

They have two choices: run an abbreviated leadership selection process which gives nobody time to throw together coherent policy positions, throw out their prepared policies - and watch the Brown appointees who support those policies leave - in favour of whatever their new leader supports (exceedingly likely to be more right-wing), and try to wing it in the campaign; or they can run with the current policies, an interim leader, and a promise that the policies will bind the new permanent leader regardless of what policies that leader runs on, in effect straightjacketing the ensuing leadership campaign. Nobody is likely to believe that a new leader will want to carry on Brown's policies, given the nature of the base. 

 

Neither is appealing. The first may not even be practicable: not only may a rushed campaign be logistically problematic, they risk displaying dirty laundry and the less appealing traits of the party right before an election is called. The second is a recipe for failure: the Liberals just have to run the election on policy and point out that the "real" PC policy is unknown, unknowable, and probably scary. 

 

On the other side, given that the best description I can find for how progressives view Horwath is "with contempt", the Liberals may have been handed this election on a silver plate.