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jsburbidgeNote: all of the following make the assumption that the video reported on by the Star and Gawker exists, that it is substantially as described, and is not a fake. If that assumption is wrong, then everything that follows is irrelevant.
1) I've seen several suggestions from the few Ford supporters who have been in contact with him that he's being silent on advice. On the other hand, just about everything I've heard from political types or crisis management types has been, to put it mildly, perplexed at this approach. The only place where this sort of clamming up makes sense is if Ford were responding to legal advice, not political, and the advice regarded not proving his critics wrong or retrieving his political fortunes, but rather avoiding incriminating himself -- which is problematic right there. And firing his Chief of Staff, given the timing, looks even more reckless and ill-advised, even if the reason for it has nothing to do with this issue.
2) I've also seen suggestions that Ford may be in the best position to buy and then dispose of the video. There are two problems with this:
on grimly until the end of his term. I'm not even sure this would make much difference to the city; he'd already become largely irrelevant on council and this would merely cement it. What this affair does do is render any campaign for re-election of Ford's part effectively futile.
4) In addition, the whole Ford brand is that much more toxic now. Doug Ford has a problem: he may need to dissociate himself from his brother, but he can't do so too early or he'll be seen as disloyal, and he can't do it too late or he'll be seen as stupid and naive.
5) I've also seen people talk about his stepping down in favour of Holyday. However, Ford can choose to go, but he can't choose his successor; if he steps down, it will leave a situation similar to that covered when he was under threat of being removed under conflict of interest legislation (a threat which is not totally dead yet, by the way: an appeal to the SCC is in process and it's possible that the court will hear it -- especially since the Court of Appeal's decision is based on a novel reading down of council's powers to impose sanctions for its guidelines). The next mayor might be Holyday, but it could just as easily be a centrist whom more of Council would be likely to accept.
1) I've seen several suggestions from the few Ford supporters who have been in contact with him that he's being silent on advice. On the other hand, just about everything I've heard from political types or crisis management types has been, to put it mildly, perplexed at this approach. The only place where this sort of clamming up makes sense is if Ford were responding to legal advice, not political, and the advice regarded not proving his critics wrong or retrieving his political fortunes, but rather avoiding incriminating himself -- which is problematic right there. And firing his Chief of Staff, given the timing, looks even more reckless and ill-advised, even if the reason for it has nothing to do with this issue.
2) I've also seen suggestions that Ford may be in the best position to buy and then dispose of the video. There are two problems with this:
- Selling the video to Ford or an agent of his for him to suppress it would be blackmail / extortion, and the proceeds would be open to confiscation as proceeds of crime. Selling the video to a media outlet to publicize is not in itself illegal, and if the seller is not the crack dealer (or cannot be proved to be such) the transaction would probably pass a legal test. And you can just imagine the public response if any such approaches by the Ford camp, traceable to him, were to be made public.
- A purchaser wishing to suppress a record has a different problem from one wanting to publish it. Suppressing it means getting reliable destruction of all copies of the video (and for safety, I'm betting that the sellers have several copies secreted in various places and safeguarded by several different individuals). Publishing it means only getting one copy and publishing it before anyone else. Guess which one is easier for a seller to guarantee?
on grimly until the end of his term. I'm not even sure this would make much difference to the city; he'd already become largely irrelevant on council and this would merely cement it. What this affair does do is render any campaign for re-election of Ford's part effectively futile.
4) In addition, the whole Ford brand is that much more toxic now. Doug Ford has a problem: he may need to dissociate himself from his brother, but he can't do so too early or he'll be seen as disloyal, and he can't do it too late or he'll be seen as stupid and naive.
5) I've also seen people talk about his stepping down in favour of Holyday. However, Ford can choose to go, but he can't choose his successor; if he steps down, it will leave a situation similar to that covered when he was under threat of being removed under conflict of interest legislation (a threat which is not totally dead yet, by the way: an appeal to the SCC is in process and it's possible that the court will hear it -- especially since the Court of Appeal's decision is based on a novel reading down of council's powers to impose sanctions for its guidelines). The next mayor might be Holyday, but it could just as easily be a centrist whom more of Council would be likely to accept.
