Mistah Ford, he dead
Nov. 1st, 2013 11:20 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
jsburbidgeIn the wake of yesterday's revelations regarding Mayor Ford, there are a few things that I haven't seen said, or at least emphasized, in the media coverage.
1) Regarding Ford's continuing support: Although cognitive dissonance seems to be keeping a core of his supporters with him -- either they still don't believe in the video, or they don't care about any of the revelations -- that core will now be at a low point (support had already dropped in a recent poll before Thursday's updates), which is likely to be true until next November. They have become irrelevant. Ford can hang on, but his chances of re-election just went from slim to zilch.
2) Ford cannot be removed, but if council wants to make him irrelevant -- to visibly force an effective resignation on him -- they can do all sorts of things if they can muster a two-thirds majority: not only can they pass motions urging him to resign, they can do things like change the makeup of his executive committee (and any other city committees). They can also modify any mayoral powers which are given to him by bylaw and not under the relevant provincial legislation.
3) The only media support Ford has left is his own radio show -- but once the campaign begins officially in January, that show will have to be shut down. He will have no forum left where his message can get out without being subject to heavy fact-checking or critical comment. Ideally, he would just cease to be covered; this isn't going to happen, because he sells papers, but he's increasingly going to have coverage only as a circus sideshow.
4) There is no way the province is not going to move to amend the Municipal Act and/or City of Toronto Act to allow for the removal of mayors in future. It's easy to see why this hasn't been in place before -- it raises the possibility of competent, validly-elected mayors at odds with a council being removed for political rather than substantive reasons -- but a high enough threshold can be set (e.g. requiring an explicit criterion of competence and/or moral probity combined with two successive votes of a supermajority of council) that this problem can be circumvented. However, it's unlikely that the government will move against Ford specifically by special Act, for political reasons, as well as a general distaste for retroactive legislation which would probably lead to a Charter challenge -- which would in turn mean that nothing would take effect until after next November in any case. (Among other things, there's a certain perverse incentive for the Liberals to keep Ford in place because of the negative impact he has on the PC brand.) This might change if Ford is actually charged with e.g. conspiracy to commit an indictable offence (extortion).
1) Regarding Ford's continuing support: Although cognitive dissonance seems to be keeping a core of his supporters with him -- either they still don't believe in the video, or they don't care about any of the revelations -- that core will now be at a low point (support had already dropped in a recent poll before Thursday's updates), which is likely to be true until next November. They have become irrelevant. Ford can hang on, but his chances of re-election just went from slim to zilch.
2) Ford cannot be removed, but if council wants to make him irrelevant -- to visibly force an effective resignation on him -- they can do all sorts of things if they can muster a two-thirds majority: not only can they pass motions urging him to resign, they can do things like change the makeup of his executive committee (and any other city committees). They can also modify any mayoral powers which are given to him by bylaw and not under the relevant provincial legislation.
3) The only media support Ford has left is his own radio show -- but once the campaign begins officially in January, that show will have to be shut down. He will have no forum left where his message can get out without being subject to heavy fact-checking or critical comment. Ideally, he would just cease to be covered; this isn't going to happen, because he sells papers, but he's increasingly going to have coverage only as a circus sideshow.
4) There is no way the province is not going to move to amend the Municipal Act and/or City of Toronto Act to allow for the removal of mayors in future. It's easy to see why this hasn't been in place before -- it raises the possibility of competent, validly-elected mayors at odds with a council being removed for political rather than substantive reasons -- but a high enough threshold can be set (e.g. requiring an explicit criterion of competence and/or moral probity combined with two successive votes of a supermajority of council) that this problem can be circumvented. However, it's unlikely that the government will move against Ford specifically by special Act, for political reasons, as well as a general distaste for retroactive legislation which would probably lead to a Charter challenge -- which would in turn mean that nothing would take effect until after next November in any case. (Among other things, there's a certain perverse incentive for the Liberals to keep Ford in place because of the negative impact he has on the PC brand.) This might change if Ford is actually charged with e.g. conspiracy to commit an indictable offence (extortion).
